Tag Archives: economic crisis

China, India and the effects of economic downturn on Australia

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Ok, so analysts are all predicting dire things for the Oz economy across the board, even the so-called “resource rich” states of WA and QLD heading for a pounding in line with the decline in commodity prices.  Let’s face it, we knew something was weird in the commodity area when petrol prices dropped off from their record highs late last year.

So what can we expect for 2009?

If the analysts are right and China does indeed shave off some 3%-to-4% of their immigrant workforce and India continues down the road to being an economic basket case*, then the future does look somewhat bleak. Bear in mind that some of Japan’s biggest companies are posting losses for the first time in their history (eg: Toyota).

On the “up” side, those fortunate few who survive the worldwide job cull should find themselves in a good position to improve their net wealth during the recovery…. of course, how may of us will still have a job let alone any cash reserves by the time this recession passes is anyone’s guess….

Summary:

  • Real Estate prices set to drop
  • Mortgage defaults set to rise
  • Pay rates set to drop  (eg: “take a percentage pay cut or a 100% one, ie: leave”…)
  • Unemployment set to rise
  • Share markets on continuing slide
  • Companies closing down
  • Governments pumping billions into economies with little or no positive effects…
  • Federal / Central banks slashing interest rates with little or no positive effects…

The only sector that seems relatively immune is the arms/weapons manufacturing industry….. um, dunno ’bout the rest of you, but that is more than a little disturbing… (for those with an interest in history…. remember, it tends to repeat…)

“FORTUNE 500 : Position #87. General Dynamics” – CNN
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2008/snapshots/169.html

“Federal budget is buggered: report” – BrisbaneTimes
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/federal-budget-is-buggered-report/2009/01/19/1232213481079.html

“Spectre of 50m job losses looms in China” – BrisbaneTimes
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/spectre-of-50m-job-losses-looms-in-china/2009/01/19/1232213484482.html

“Mortgage arrears ‘to hit 500,000′” (in India) – BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7789274.stm

“Japan forecasts no growth in 2009″ – BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7791068.stm

“Toyota forecasts loss as sales slide” – CNN
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/22/news/companies/toyota/